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Questor share tip: With an order book up 15pc since the end of the year Hunting's shares seem under-priced at the moment
It is reassuring to see oil services and equipment specialist Hunting come up with a one-fifth gain in its shares after last week’s trading update.
A second profit forecast upgrade in quick succession, following that of late May, suggests the oil equipment and services market is not as torpid as many believe. The shares largely ignored May’s statement, amid an ongoing slide in oil prices and global rig activity, but they have paid attention this time.
According to Jim Johnson, the chief executive, the order book is up 15pc since the end of the year to around $540m (£421m), thanks to increased activity in Latin America, the Middle East and Asia.
Whether we like it or not, the globe still consumes roughly 100m barrels of oil a day and US shale has provided about nine tenths of global production growth over the past decade.
The Biden administration does not seem keen on encouraging more fracking (even if it also wants to have its cake and eat it by calling for Saudi Arabia to pump more crude to put a lid on oil prices) so activity elsewhere, or at least offshore, may have to take up the slack while the globe manages its transition toward more renewable and less carbon-intensive sources of energy.
The 40pc share price swoon since February meant Hunting was among the worst-performing 10pc of the FTSE All-Share ahead of the trading update.
Painful as that slide was, we still had a book profit as our entry point had been so low. That hopefully helps to justify our value-driven approach and even after last Thursday’s romp the shares look cheap.
The £386m market cap represents a hefty discount to the stated book, or net asset, value of £665m (or £545m if goodwill is excluded), while the absence of any substantial debt should also help to protect the downside.
It also means there is no time pressure on the company to reel in the orders that should continue to underpin analysts’ expectations of a return to profit in 2023 and further advances in 2024 and 2025.
A forward price-earnings ratio of 17 times may not look compelling but this is a company where earnings per share (EPS) exceeded 40p in 2012, 2013 and 2018.
If they ever get there again then the shares are just screamingly cheap, and they still look interesting at even half that level.
Questor says: buy
Ticker: HTG
Share price at close: 250p
This column first assessed this fixed-income instrument, issued by litigation finance specialist Burford Capital just over six years ago and it has done its job admirably, delivering 12 semi-annual coupons of £3.0625 per £100 bond.
The bad news is that Burford Capital has elected to redeem the bond early. The repayment date is tomorrow and will include accrued interest since the last coupon payment.
Our purchase price was £108 so a book loss is coming, but that was factored in at the time of the initial analysis and £36.80 per £100 bond has been gratefully received (and with a little more to come), for some healthy cash returns.
However, this may leave income seekers with money they wish to reinvest upon redemption, especially given an inflation rate of 8.7pc, according to the consumer price index.
There is another Burford Capital bond available, with a coupon of 5pc and maturity in December 2026. A bond price of £91.85 gives a running yield of 5.4pc and the gross redemption yield will be higher than that, assuming the bond is safely redeemed at par of £100 in 42 months’ time.
The UK two-year government gilt is yielding 5.5pc and the benchmark 10-year 4.6pc, which may offer some portfolio diversification for income hunters. Those investors who wish to eschew the risk that comes with specific securities could also look at bond funds, be they actively run by a manager or passive instruments that seek to follow an index and deliver that benchmark’s performance to investors, minus its running costs.
Note, however, that bond funds do not mature, unlike an individual fixed-income instrument, so there is duration risk here.
Duration measures how much the price of a bond moves relative to movements in interest rates, and the greatest duration comes with the lowest-yielding and longest-maturing instruments, so any would-be bond fund buyers must check the collective’s mandate and what is in the portfolio.
Questor says: sell
Russ Mould is investment director at AJ Bell, the stockbroker
Read the latest Questor column on telegraph.co.uk every Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday from 6am.
Read Questor’s rules of investment before you follow our tips
Questor says: buyTicker: HTGShare price at close: 250pQuestor says: sellRead the latest Questor column on telegraph.co.uk every Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday from 6am.Read Questor’s rules of investment before you follow our tips